(A more typical retirement age for a senator is in their 80s.)Īnd there are already rumblings about Trump-aligned candidates running in competitive Senate races, such as Lara Trump (the former president’s daughter-in-law) in North Carolina. Toomey, Burr and Portman are retiring at a conspicuously young age - 59, 65 and 65 years old, respectively. Indeed, one reason for the retirements may have been the threat of a pro-Trump primary challenge - or at least distaste for the idea of continuing to serve in Trump’s Republican Party. But now, the Republican nominees could be Trump loyalists. Bush administration) are not members of the Trump wing of the GOP and likely would have retained some support from swing voters had they run for reelection. Capitol) and Portman (a former member of the George W. Burr, Toomey (who said Trump “ committed impeachable offenses” by inciting an extremist mob to ransack the U.S. However, one thing that could give Democrats hope - not only in Ohio, but also in Pennsylvania and North Carolina - is if Republicans nominate a far-right candidate. Sherrod Brown) running in a blue-wave election year (2018).
Ohio is simply not the quintessential swing state it once was dating back to the 2014 election cycle, Democrats have won just one out of 14 statewide contests in Ohio - and that was a popular incumbent (Sen. Even in the Democratic-leaning environment of 2020, Trump won Ohio by 8 percentage points, implying that its true partisan lean 1 is probably even more Republican-leaning. And in Ohio specifically, Republicans still look like heavy favorites. What’s more, by announcing their retirements so early, Burr, Toomey and Portman are giving the GOP as much time as possible to recruit potential candidates, shape the field of candidates in a strategic way in the invisible primary and raise more money for the open-seat campaign. That could make these retirements less of a blow to Republicans than they first appear. So there’s a good chance that states will be at least a bit redder in 2022 than they were in 2020. Indeed, 2020 was actually a Democratic-leaning year, with Biden winning the national popular vote by 4.5 percentage points.
If that pattern holds true in 2022, the 2020 presidential results are probably not the best barometer of the partisanship of these states. As we saw in 2018 (and 2014, and 2010, and 2006, and…), midterm elections are usually bad for the president’s party. However, the GOP may have one big advantage in 2022: a Republican-leaning national environment.
Senate seats up in 2022 and their incumbents, by state’s presidential margin in 2020 State (To make matters worse for Republicans, Johnson is considering retirement as well.) 3 GOP retirements so far In fact, no Democratic senators are running for reelection in states won by former President Donald Trump in 2020, while Republicans are defending two seats in states won by President Biden: the open seat in Pennsylvania and Sen. Although the Senate’s rural bias still makes the chamber advantageous to Republicans overall, the 2022 Senate map doesn’t force Democrats to compete on red turf nearly as much as the 2020 map or killer 2018 map did. These retirements could be a helpful development for Democrats, too, as they provide the party with potential openings on what was already a decently favorable Senate map for them.
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